UK House Prices Predicted to Surge by £80,000 in 5 Years: Regional Breakdown and Key Factors.
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House prices across the UK are set to increase by an estimated £80,000 by 2029, driven by home movers despite waning demand from buy-to-let investors and first-time buyers. Savills’ recent analysis projects a 23.4% property value growth, with prices reaching £442,000, up from today’s average of £358,000.
Key Projections:
- Regional Leaders: The North West leads with an anticipated 29.4% surge, while London’s growth lags at 17.1%.
- Market Dynamics: As mortgage rates stabilize, affordability has slightly improved, bolstering buyer confidence. However, increased stamp duties for landlords and second-home buyers could dampen activity.
This anticipated rise signals a shift towards regional hotspots, where affordability and availability are more favourable for buyers.
UK Regional Growth Variations Revealed
The North West leads the property boom, with an exceptional 29.4% projected growth. Strong performers include:
- North West: 29.4% increase
- North East: Above national average growth
- Yorkshire: Exceeding market expectations
London trails behind at 17.1%, marking Britain’s lowest regional growth forecast.
Market Dynamics Shifting – Forecast
Several key factors are reshaping the market of UK house price prediction
- Upsizers driving growth
- First-time buyers facing reduced support
- Buy-to-let investors navigating new challenges
- Mortgage rates are beginning to ease
Latest Policy Changes Impact Market
Labour’s recent policy shifts have transformed the landscape:
- Stamp duty increase from 3% to 5% for second homes in the UK
- End of first-time buyer stamp duty discount in London
- No changes to capital gains tax on buy-to-let sales
Expert Analysis
Lucian Cook, Savills’ head of residential research, notes: “A steady improvement in affordability should boost house price growth momentum.” However, he warns of potential market sensitivity to debt costs and property taxation changes.
Mortgage Market Updates Forecast
The Bank of England’s rate cut from 5.25% to 5% signals positive change. Markets anticipate further cuts, potentially reaching 4.75% soon. This trend suggests improved mortgage affordability for homebuyers.
UK house prices prediction – Regional Considerations
London and South East buyers face unique challenges:
- Higher income-to-borrowing ratios required
- Larger deposits needed
- Limited price growth compared to northern regions
Despite challenges, London’s market has performed “better than expected,” with increased competition in commuter areas.
Future Market Outlook
Key trends to watch:
- Continued upsizer market dominance
- Reduced first-time buyer participation
- Shifting buy-to-let landscape
- Regional growth variations persisting
Source: savills
| Region | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 5-Year Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North West | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 29.4% |
| North East | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 28.2% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 28.2% |
| West Midlands | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 26.4% |
| Scotland | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 25.8% |
| Wales | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 25.2% |
| East Midlands | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 24.6% |
| UK (Overall) | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 23.4% |
| South West | 2.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 21.6% |
| East of England | 2.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 19.9% |
| South East | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 17.6% |
| London | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 17.1% |
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